Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Karlsruher SC vs. Hannover 96 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a18c96f7b05ffb7d2160874bd5edc541a1688a3467286d66d3e1bb5876efc3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 34c | 3,451$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.17 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 2,163$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.49 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked No | 67c | 1,080$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 71c | 1,010$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.08 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 23c | 558.01$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.25 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 15c | 480.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked Yes | 42c | 470.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.91 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 21c | 453.62$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.26 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 42c | 422.32$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.59 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 58c | 268.55$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.83 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 75c | 267$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 12c | 203.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 80c | 198.62$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 10c | 191$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 37c | 169.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 28c | 112.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 77c | 99.87$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 22c | 54.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 28c | 51.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf74…d8bcbacked Yes | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 57c | 21.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 78c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed No | 79c | 14.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 78c | 14.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karlsruher SC vs. Hannover 96 end in a draw?this page
- Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-04-25?Yes won
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-04-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.