NHL · resolved market
Flames vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a38b1de69739f95c85fedb4375cad7554d70b5b68dbe9c17abbbf255a9b25c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 53c | 65,549$34,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,807.83 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Over | 47c | 60,000$28,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,200 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Under | 53c | 5,555$2,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,610.85 | 217 | 55.3%120 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 47c | 4,332$2,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,036.04 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 47c | 4,201$1,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,974.47 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 47c | 2,001$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.47 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 47c | 1,576$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.99 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 53c | 943.38$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.39 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 8c | 892.22$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…fa8ebacked Under | 53c | 769.99$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…d142backed Under | 53c | 659.58$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.66 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 47c | 601.1$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 47c | 426$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.22 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Under | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 47c | 261.22$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.77 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Under | 60c | 231.49$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.49 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Over | 48c | 224.8$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 48c | 121.2$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 36c | 98.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Over | 47c | 84.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 47c | 75.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 41c | 70.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 48c | 56.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 46c | 47.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 54c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 59c | 38.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 45c | 35.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…81f7backed Over | 48c | 34.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 276 | 52.2%144 W · 132 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 48c | 29.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…5d05backed Under | 55c | 18.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flames vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5this page
- Flames vs. SharksFlames won
- Flames vs. Sharks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flames vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flames vs. Sharks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Sharks (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.