NHL · resolved market
Spread: Sharks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbd7f1036e9bc19bd39c691de4efb0f92f24272d274240b543eaf3037a19895b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flamesof Sharks, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…db70backed Sharks | 34c | 5,376$1,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.25 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Flames | 66c | 2,591$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.88 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Flames | 67c | 2,420$1,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.59 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Flames | 66c | 1,334$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.68 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Flames | 54c | 1,300$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed Sharks | 21c | 753.69$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Flames | 66c | 523$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.82 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Sharks | 34c | 504.62$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.7 | 151 | 45%68 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Sharks | 46c | 495.3$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.2 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Sharks | 46c | 471.68$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.97 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaa…3858backed Sharks | 33c | 454.55$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Flames | 66c | 449.75$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.92 | 215 | 55.3%119 W · 96 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Sharks | 33c | 366$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.78 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…8b3dbacked Sharks | 33c | 290.91$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Sharks | 34c | 219.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.72 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Flames | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Sharks | 33c | 183$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…37d8backed Flames | 70c | 167.71$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a1…b711backed Sharks | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Sharks | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Flames | 69c | 145.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Sharks | 30c | 141.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Sharks | 30c | 111.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Sharks | 33c | 107.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Flames | 67c | 100.9$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Flames | 70c | 99.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Sharks | 33c | 99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Flames | 70c | 96.76$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Sharks | 36c | 94.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Sharks | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78e0…2bb0backed Sharks | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Flames | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Sharks | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Flames | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Sharks | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Flames | 67c | 31.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Flames | 68c | 30.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Flames | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfd…641abacked Flames | 69c | 19.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sharks (-1.5)this page
- Flames vs. SharksFlames won
- Flames vs. Sharks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flames vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flames vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Flames vs. Sharks: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.