Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Heroic vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a41e1e39102da544e76f4e57ae0949b3d9dbf1cf7f2ac19e82667600a977c92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of Heroic, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heroic | 14c | 10,095$1,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.94 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Heroic | 27c | 4,149$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.08 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Heroic | 20c | 3,652$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.87 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 69c | 3,560$2,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.59 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Heroic | 31c | 2,743$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.82 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 46c | 2,640$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,418.06 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Heroic | 42c | 2,473$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.66 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Pipsqueak+4 | 51c | 971.15$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.15 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Heroic | 58c | 415.64$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.07 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 32c | 334.9$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.33 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Heroic | 10c | 313.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Heroic | 68c | 311.96$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.13 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Heroic | 42c | 296.96$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.64 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Heroic | 72c | 140$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked Heroic | 9c | 137.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…104ebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 51c | 117.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Heroic | 15c | 115$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…a7edbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…f3a0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed Heroic | 54c | 44.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Heroic | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea5…6696backed Pipsqueak+4 | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…1ddcbacked Heroic | 71c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Heroic | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) Pipsqueak+4 won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.