Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Heroic vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4fd9a9ddb62b3723ad2ba2f74668dec911d16bcb9932325c89c1ad8048f5ce1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of Heroic, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefee…d2b3backed Heroic | 72c | 14,998$10,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,853.53 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 40c | 14,528$5,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,784.95 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Pipsqueak+4 | 41c | 8,214$3,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,810.26 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Heroic | 74c | 4,113$3,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,049.94 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Heroic | 78c | 3,852$2,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,996.12 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…932fbacked Heroic | 75c | 3,344$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…92fbbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 49c | 2,909$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.59 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Pipsqueak+4 | 37c | 2,560$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,602.46 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Heroic | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 36c | 2,170$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.05 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Heroic | 56c | 2,143$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.79 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 26c | 1,313$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.95 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…d58cbacked Heroic | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked Heroic | 45c | 1,084$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.43 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…66a1backed Pipsqueak+4 | 39c | 840.1$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +158.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked Heroic | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 30c | 446.2$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.38 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 25c | 315.37$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.52 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…1765backed Heroic | 72c | 284.25$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.66 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Heroic | 71c | 282.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.13 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed Heroic | 56c | 250$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.5 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Heroic | 50c | 239.12$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.41 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35e…7754backed Heroic | 65c | 227.05$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.58 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Heroic | 24c | 210$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc861…63afbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e3…e46dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 29c | 169.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.84 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Pipsqueak+4 | 44c | 169.17$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.66 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.67 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 20c | 148.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.1 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d3…a973backed Heroic | 25c | 138.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd5…dbb1backed Heroic | 34c | 133.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…f3a0backed Heroic | 36c | 114$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Heroic | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd4…ea9abacked Heroic | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…122cbacked Heroic | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -10.2wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…2ef0backed Heroic | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb89…d20abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 23c | 86.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Heroic | 58c | 77.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9a…5f9cbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 56c | 66.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Pipsqueak+4 | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Pipsqueak+4 | 30c | 57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.43per pick | 45cpaid | +117.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Pipsqueak+4 | 43c | 53.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed Heroic | 33c | 50.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acb…8c1dbacked Heroic | 70c | 49.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 46.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…1c72backed Heroic | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Heroic | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Heroic | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee9…0bedbacked Heroic | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…28c2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38ee…012fbacked Heroic | 70c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) Pipsqueak+4 won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.