Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Heroic vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe64e481afa01d57c49caad16d46cb0b4c7ce69f18aaf7ce22b52e2befb07f62a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of Heroic, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Heroic | 65c | 4,609$2,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,996.98 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Pipsqueak+4 | 39c | 2,405$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.42 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad7…f012backed Heroic | 67c | 2,123$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 46c | 1,912$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.95 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Heroic | 13c | 1,839$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.06 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…b8a0backed Heroic | 40c | 1,600$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Heroic | 36c | 1,584$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.64 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3158…d469backed Pipsqueak+4 | 23c | 1,500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +198.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.99 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Heroic | 52c | 1,457$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 48c | 1,225$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.37 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Heroic | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Heroic | 22c | 639.54$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.37 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d9d7backed Heroic | 10c | 599.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 22c | 599.69$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.83 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Heroic | 79c | 506.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Heroic | 79c | 500$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Heroic | 58c | 499.99$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.49 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 36c | 485.37$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.16 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…0601backed Pipsqueak+4 | 51c | 454.6$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked Heroic | 77c | 432$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.64 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ed…617ebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 24c | 409.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.23 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Pipsqueak+4 | 22c | 400$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Heroic | 78c | 380$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.4 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Heroic | 48c | 328.57$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.71 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 51c | 274.51$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.51 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…1691backed Heroic | 63c | 238.46$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 61c | 235.55$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.47 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb861…27ffbacked Heroic | 67c | 204.4$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35e…7754backed Heroic | 79c | 201.59$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.26 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Pipsqueak+4 | 23c | 199.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.85 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Heroic | 79c | 194.53$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.68 | 106 | 59.4%63 W · 43 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Heroic | 77c | 192$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.84 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4691…87d1backed Heroic | 79c | 181.06$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbf…58f2backed Heroic | 7c | 170$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…8122backed Heroic | 73c | 166.88$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Pipsqueak+4 | 45c | 158$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.38 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Heroic | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Heroic | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Heroic | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pipsqueak+4 | 22c | 127.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.3 | 1,894 | 47.7%903 W · 991 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Heroic | 79c | 127$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Heroic | 80c | 125.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce7…cc16backed Pipsqueak+4 | 37c | 120$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Pipsqueak+4 | 52c | 104.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…be99backed Heroic | 70c | 103.21$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Pipsqueak+4 | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Heroic | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c2…56a8backed Pipsqueak+4 | 51c | 99.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Heroic | 50c | 99.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked Heroic | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Heroic | 50c | 89.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Heroic | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…7796backed Pipsqueak+4 | 21c | 64.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Pipsqueak+4 | 21c | 60.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 43c | 56.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Pipsqueak+4 | 22c | 55.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e53…5c9dbacked Heroic | 80c | 55.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0a…2d88backed Heroic | 62c | 54.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed Pipsqueak+4 | 52c | 46.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…82b4backed Heroic | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85a…b9fcbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…02dbbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Heroic | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b7…f260backed Heroic | 37c | 29.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Heroic | 46c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed Pipsqueak+4 | 46c | 22.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…ea69backed Heroic | 78c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf2…45bcbacked Heroic | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…edcebacked Heroic | 78c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.