Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-04-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a4785ce242b323165aab033c085661f5e87a131dfb3f2677f33dd1888806921
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 4c | 8,798$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.27 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 5c | 1,622$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.83 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…96d3backed Yes | 41c | 1,126$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 14c | 982.15$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.95 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 10c | 915.85$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.05 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 41c | 621.9$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.92 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 41c | 482.3$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.74 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 61c | 450.45$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.01 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed No | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed Yes | 62c | 297.89$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 45c | 208.49$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.67 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 59c | 203.11$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.45 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6e…c865backed No | 55c | 190.71$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581a…8e5fbacked Yes | 61c | 169.97$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.29 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 62c | 158.05$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 20c | 150.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 59c | 126$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 13c | 116.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 59c | 115.82$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2439…3ed7backed Yes | 60c | 105.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 59c | 97.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 42c | 92.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 35c | 81.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 55c | 78.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 52c | 76.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…0303backed Yes | 61c | 74.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 42c | 68.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed No | 39c | 64.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 59c | 61.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 59c | 59.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b2…dcc5backed No | 41c | 50.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Yes | 40c | 49.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 45c | 48.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Yes | 60c | 41.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 39c | 32.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 45c | 29.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed No | 59c | 25.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…3c33backed Yes | 62c | 23.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741b…4a79backed No | 57c | 21.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3feb…7464backed Yes | 62c | 20.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 75c | 20.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +12.5wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-04-18?this page
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden vs. VfL Bochum end in a draw?No won
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-04-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.