Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Stuttgart beat Borussia Dortmund?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a4c4e784418b7b6af3ed1daf19939555c3279b53a1c8a99a1fdb7e39d803cfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 62c | 4,043$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,520.09 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked No | 74c | 2,511$1,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,846.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d17…ac75backed No | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,504$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.3 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1218…366bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,158$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +168.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 28c | 1,056$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.37 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 25c | 604.99$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +101%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 74c | 454.38$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.16 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 27c | 440$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9311…3515backed No | 16c | 427.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed No | 53c | 372$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 28c | 361.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.05 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 27c | 245.37$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.37 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 73c | 234$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.83 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 76c | 199.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.99 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x246c…4c1abacked Yes | 24c | 168.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf918…81f9backed Yes | 62c | 161.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 27c | 137.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.04 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 73c | 122.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.39 | 228 | 54.8%125 W · 103 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 26c | 109$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +291.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 10c | 101.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5460…afe8backed Yes | 25c | 100.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +302.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a0…eabdbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 38c | 86.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56a…4aabbacked Yes | 45c | 78.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92be…d717backed No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…ff41backed Yes | 26c | 51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4100…8ec3backed No | 74c | 51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 26c | 50.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…07f5backed Yes | 26c | 49.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe311…ccd1backed No | 77c | 43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…37b3backed Yes | 26c | 39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73eb…606bbacked No | 74c | 39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked No | 76c | 29.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70d3…f29bbacked No | 74c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…dcd8backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ff…3ebdbacked No | 77c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x916c…9c1dbacked No | 77c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325e…b6d1backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2a…ccd4backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e7…e9fdbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Stuttgart beat Borussia Dortmund?this page
- Will Borussia Dortmund beat Stuttgart?No won
- Will the match between Borussia Dortmund and Stuttgart end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.