Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a53f75eed2168840419ef3259f1855790fdb0e3d3841cc89828750e595555d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 61c | 316.73$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 76c | 275.07$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.46 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 13c | 181.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 544 | 22.6%123 W · 421 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 39c | 166.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.47 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 60c | 165$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 252 | 75.8%191 W · 61 L | +25.0wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 35c | 159.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 157.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…508fbacked Yes | 67c | 147.32$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 20c | 143.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 679 | 44.6%303 W · 376 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 79c | 140.84$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 30c | 137.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed No | 33c | 126.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 77c | 110.57$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 4,665 | 26.6%1,242 W · 3,423 L | +65.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 73c | 104.87$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 29c | 96.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3545…b7e0backed No | 22c | 78.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…275dbacked Yes | 79c | 64.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 25c | 50.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 915 | 34.3%314 W · 601 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 64c | 48.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 694 | 35.3%245 W · 449 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 67c | 48.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 2,505 | 69.7%1,746 W · 759 L | +77.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 47c | 45.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 38c | 43.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked Yes | 66c | 39.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 76c | 37.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095d…110bbacked Yes | 65c | 37.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 64c | 34.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 62c | 34.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 67c | 33.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 34c | 31.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 75c | 31.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a49…2b86backed Yes | 63c | 30.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed Yes | 71c | 30.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe3…94e5backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 71c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed Yes | 71c | 28.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 252 | 64.7%163 W · 89 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 73c | 27.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 65c | 26.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c32…d55fbacked Yes | 79c | 24.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed Yes | 56c | 24.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 69c | 22.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 62c | 22.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 75c | 22.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed Yes | 79c | 21.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes | 72c | 20.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 1,367 | 69.2%946 W · 421 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 64c | 20.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 73c | 19.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 613 | 46.7%286 W · 327 L | +41.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…4a18backed Yes | 55c | 19.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 71c | 17.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 68c | 16.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 1,706 | 60.7%1,035 W · 671 L | -23.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed Yes | 80c | 14.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked Yes | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.