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Tennis · resolved market

Game Spread: Fery (-1.5) vs Kovacevic (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Feryof Fery, Kovacevic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,181
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,267

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,181 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xff81…44c9backed Kovacevic56c6,691$3,773 inLost-$3,773.391,29556.6%733 W · 562 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Fery44c6,660$2,905 inWon+$3,755.392,54551.2%1,303 W · 1,242 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99fc…ec26backed Kovacevic60c1,100$660 inLost-$66065939.6%261 W · 398 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Fery40c1,095$438 inWon+$657.155,03138.5%1,939 W · 3,092 L-20.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ef…82b8backed Kovacevic70c199.99$140 inLost-$1405451.9%28 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid+5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc547…c570backed Fery30c163.33$49 inWon+$114.3368838.2%263 W · 425 L+3.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid+3.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Fery44c27.27$12 inWon+$15.2762447.6%297 W · 327 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b53…db22backed Kovacevic73c14.59$11 inLost-$10.652733.3%9 W · 18 L-6.9wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-43.4%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.