Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Bayern München leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a7cdbd3b6c2b2673ae4648da9ab658a3464d67c3bb4ac95e25ec69bf8f93971
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x896d…cd2cbacked Yes | 47c | 599.99$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 53c | 270.15$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.18 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25e2…dc8fbacked Yes | 53c | 264.25$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 47c | 249.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked No | 47c | 240$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 41c | 190.1$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.51 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 46c | 164$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.56 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 54c | 164$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f17…66c7backed Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 46c | 146$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 54c | 146$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 55c | 143.39$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.79 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…f43cbacked Yes | 38c | 111.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f26…b8ccbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3afdbacked No | 46c | 89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 49c | 87.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 31c | 86.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed No | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 53c | 44.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbf…b6e2backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe97…5000backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 55c | 22.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 63c | 17.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed No | 63c | 17.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…c734backed No | 66c | 17.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München leading at halftime?this page
- SC Freiburg leading at halftime?No won
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: Draw at halftime?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.