NHL · resolved market
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a8499fb22c927305d1eb7c921549104771465bbbc95dcff311a669c134b4b0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blackhawksof Avalanche, Blackhawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Avalanche | 45c | 5,617$2,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,527.71 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Blackhawks | 55c | 5,442$2,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,448.81 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Avalanche | 45c | 4,556$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050.03 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Blackhawks | 55c | 3,333$1,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.85 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Blackhawks | 48c | 1,433$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.3 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Avalanche | 48c | 1,351$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.89 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Avalanche | 56c | 996$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.33 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Blackhawks | 54c | 890.59$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.67 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Avalanche | 45c | 759.9$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.7 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Blackhawks | 55c | 755$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.75 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…cf61backed Blackhawks | 54c | 648.15$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.15 | 130 | 60%78 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…61bbbacked Blackhawks | 55c | 566.29$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.45 | 412 | 48.3%199 W · 213 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Blackhawks | 52c | 496.49$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.14 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Blackhawks | 57c | 290$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.7 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Avalanche | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 268 | 48.5%130 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Blackhawks | 55c | 146.62$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.98 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Blackhawks | 14c | 132.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.75 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | +14.5wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +218.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Avalanche | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Avalanche | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Avalanche | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Blackhawks | 53c | 89.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…5945backed Avalanche | 46c | 86.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Avalanche | 46c | 60.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 799 | 56.1%448 W · 351 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Avalanche | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2325…3256backed Blackhawks | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Avalanche | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Avalanche | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Blackhawks | 52c | 23.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a3…102cbacked Blackhawks | 68c | 23.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Avalanche | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Avalanche | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Blackhawks | 54c | 21.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)this page
- Avalanche vs. BlackhawksAvalanche won
- Avalanche vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.