Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Leeds United FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a91c0f0c758544906e885061195a0b4ce65afa12fa52aeae8355ef66147eb9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nottingham Forest FCof Leeds United FC, Nottingham Forest FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Leeds United FC | 7c | 4,326$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.12 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…8105backed Leeds United FC | 80c | 625.98$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nottingham Forest FC | 21c | 556.18$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.61 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Leeds United FC | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Leeds United FC | 9c | 281.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76e7…1872backed Leeds United FC | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nottingham Forest FC | 70c | 61.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Leeds United FC | 30c | 61.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Nottingham Forest FC | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 241 | 46.1%111 W · 130 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Leeds United FC (-2.5)this page
- Leeds United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Leeds United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Leeds United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Leeds United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Leeds United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5)Leeds United FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Leeds United FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)Leeds United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.