Premier League · resolved market
Leeds United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x861e05b6e7f7f0c0bf208ff841ece6e8d0324bfeed33a33be179001365e19239
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 10,865$5,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,495.75 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 239 | 26.4%63 W · 176 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 7,112$3,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,217.83 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…e5e9backed Over | 55c | 4,157$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,856.85 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,959.94 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 2,561$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.26 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 73c | 2,221$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615.03 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 27c | 1,296$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.3 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Over | 54c | 919.34$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.34 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 48c | 880.06$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.74 | 210 | 49%103 W · 107 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 65c | 809$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.45 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…9ba9backed Under | 54c | 785.52$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 49c | 747.11$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.92 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 60c | 723.73$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.44 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 28c | 714.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.29 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 67c | 589.39$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 457 | 51.2%234 W · 223 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 28c | 535.89$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.89 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e28…df76backed Over | 47c | 482.4$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.92 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 67c | 444.82$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.05 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 72c | 300$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 524 | 54.2%284 W · 240 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Over | 46c | 279.01$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.67 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Under | 77c | 260$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 141 | 66.7%94 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df4…0540backed Over | 46c | 234.45$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.44 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 58c | 222.35$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.48 | 432 | 41.9%181 W · 251 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 46c | 166$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.03 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 25c | 160$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 75c | 160$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Over | 25c | 146$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 62c | 129.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 27c | 116.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.23 | 241 | 58.1%140 W · 101 L | +34.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 55c | 115$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 76c | 112.28$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Over | 46c | 104.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +9.0wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +26%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe18e…706dbacked Under | 74c | 94.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 208 | 64.9%135 W · 73 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b4…e861backed Over | 70c | 84.56$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 34c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 375 | 54.9%206 W · 169 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 144 | 31.9%46 W · 98 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…ffd7backed Under | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 36c | 58.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 28c | 57.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 351 | 34.8%122 W · 229 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 55c | 56.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 198 | 53%105 W · 93 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 55c | 52.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Over | 38c | 52.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c6…2e9fbacked Over | 46c | 45.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…9032backed Over | 25c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a57…4f76backed Over | 25c | 43.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +196.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 49c | 42.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 181 | 39.2%71 W · 110 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 24c | 41.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 34c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 46c | 38.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 75c | 31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 271 | 73.8%200 W · 71 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 76cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 76c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…e9f7backed Over | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed Under | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…4028backed Under | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 36c | 29.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 212 | 50%106 W · 106 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7c…1214backed Under | 75c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fd…fe29backed Under | 68c | 26.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…f2d4backed Under | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7a…737bbacked Under | 52c | 25.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12dc…f3dfbacked Under | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Under | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 160 | 60%96 W · 64 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 54c | 23.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…614cbacked Under | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 54c | 20.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 426 | 58%247 W · 179 L | +24.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Under | 76c | 20.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 162 | 51.2%83 W · 79 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Leeds United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Leeds United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Leeds United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Leeds United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Leeds United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5)Leeds United FC won
- Spread: Leeds United FC (-2.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Leeds United FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)Leeds United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.