Mls · resolved market
Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ab0ffe0aea5792c50a5e5f7e090a53535b2d05c2b5b658de7afe8982691e572
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,393 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 3,261$1,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,317.73 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 39c | 1,240$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.95 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 33c | 940.27$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9a…d516backed Over | 73c | 603.27$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…df11backed Under | 27c | 603.27$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 63c | 498.24$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.16 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…4cbfbacked Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 64c | 309.53$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.81 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Over | 41c | 208$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.13 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked Under | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 27c | 125.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 57c | 125.72$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 34c | 115.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 50c | 88.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7a…3ce8backed Over | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.3wins | -0.55per pick | 72cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 40c | 68.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Under | 61c | 48.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -6.6wins | -0.15per pick | 64cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under | 59c | 42.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 41c | 41.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3d…fd74backed Over | 52c | 41.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68d…a292backed Over | 78c | 33.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 61c | 32.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 39c | 32.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)Minnesota United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.