Tennis · resolved market
ITF Koszalin: Tiago Pereira vs Niklas Guttau
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ac7eb14035272efede669e75d3832c21648bd0e9bbd53c51d9290e48a35e1ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tiago Pereiraof Tiago Pereira, Niklas Guttau
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Tiago Pereira | 62c | 5,861$3,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,227.34 | 251 | 44.6%112 W · 139 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Niklas Guttau | 35c | 1,084$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.27 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Niklas Guttau | 37c | 1,080$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.81 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Niklas Guttau | 41c | 1,058$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.27 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…db95backed Niklas Guttau | 35c | 1,010$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.5 | 329 | 52.3%172 W · 157 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Niklas Guttau | 34c | 436.42$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.78 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…2d61backed Tiago Pereira | 58c | 293.68$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.35 | 717 | 25.2%181 W · 536 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3b…9035backed Niklas Guttau | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 307 | 55%169 W · 138 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Niklas Guttau | 36c | 211.87$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.77 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Niklas Guttau | 35c | 171.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Niklas Guttau | 32c | 165.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Niklas Guttau | 32c | 159.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…2d2ebacked Niklas Guttau | 42c | 143.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Niklas Guttau | 21c | 107$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Tiago Pereira | 76c | 92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Niklas Guttau | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Niklas Guttau | 31c | 60.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Niklas Guttau | 37c | 59.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 654 | 34.9%228 W · 426 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Tiago Pereira | 79c | 55.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 455 | 66.4%302 W · 153 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…8ef6backed Niklas Guttau | 24c | 54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Niklas Guttau | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Niklas Guttau | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tiago Pereira | 79c | 44.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Niklas Guttau | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…7537backed Tiago Pereira | 79c | 25.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 113 | 72.6%82 W · 31 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 77cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Tiago Pereira | 76c | 17.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.