Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ad92892047ab79db2ebd4b4ff624a34638e1f307e4d4085ab5840fe24cf64bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 65c | 460.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.92 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 50c | 243.15$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.73 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 219.78$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 210.38$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.94 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 15c | 180$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 12c | 179.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 35c | 169$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.65 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 115.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 107.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.8 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…3359backed Yes | 38c | 104.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 43c | 98.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.87 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 37c | 85.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 71.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6311…fb18backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…3e99backed Yes | 15c | 69.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 55c | 62.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 59.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…3a8bbacked Yes | 66c | 57.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 59c | 57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 61c | 52.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 42c | 47.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 60c | 46.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf569…a8bbbacked Yes | 66c | 45.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 36.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…6384backed Yes | 30c | 33.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 39c | 32.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 27.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 62c | 25.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 77c | 20.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 65c | 18.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.