Champions League · resolved market
Will Bayern Munich beat Shakhtar Donetsk?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3afd21eb3e0da2e757d142b0bde90838889cebaa6c04000be13da5e5b1488e27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 18c | 11,196$2,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,015.2 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked No | 16c | 7,566$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.54 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed No | 13c | 4,724$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.96 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 17c | 4,176$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 210 | 37.1%78 W · 132 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…0934backed No | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5272…f0afbacked No | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed No | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…2529backed No | 14c | 380$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…74a7backed No | 14c | 359.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked No | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 286 | 39.9%114 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee9d…63e1backed No | 32c | 155.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…d498backed Yes | 68c | 148.45$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked No | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 12c | 105$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 19c | 102.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…3b80backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed No | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 28c | 62.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…d9f9backed Yes | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayern Munich beat Shakhtar Donetsk?this page
- Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Bayern Munich?No won
- Will the match between Shakhtar Donetsk and Bayern Munich end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.