Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b74925d89d0f9d41f92442adea4329b2400538400955c04ea4750e1ff694e53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 1,704$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.75 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 3c | 1,676$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 80c | 394.9$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.48 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 374.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 324.74$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 4c | 301.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 268.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 18c | 208.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 206.86$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 8c | 200.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 13c | 175.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 165.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc348…0b7ebacked Yes | 18c | 144.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 115.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked No | 67c | 114.19$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 18c | 112.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 22c | 70.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e9…dc76backed Yes | 24c | 66.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 78c | 63.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 58.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 48.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed Yes | 27c | 48.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 39c | 45.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 61c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 72c | 29.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 66c | 19.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 76c | 18.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 79c | 12.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.67 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.