Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb612b7cadb2df9b6760dbe63d959d5eded69f0f3f39b898adee0f115ffab025
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 8c | 982.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 863.98$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.45 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed No | 73c | 533.34$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 397.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 28c | 332.76$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.02 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Yes | 11c | 276.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 264.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 34c | 264.05$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.42 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 257.14$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 226.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 205.13$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 204.62$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 26c | 192.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 8c | 178.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 10c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 27c | 99.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 11c | 91.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc348…0b7ebacked Yes | 32c | 85.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 64c | 78.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 63.49$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 69c | 53.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 50.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 24c | 46.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 68c | 42.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 72c | 41.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae58…f81bbacked Yes | 25c | 41.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 41.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 40.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8b…4639backed Yes | 35c | 39.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes | 28c | 39.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 33c | 38.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 29c | 38.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b13…5af4backed Yes | 30c | 37.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 73c | 36.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 35c | 36.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 35.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 75c | 34.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d6…8b53backed No | 69c | 34.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 72c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…a738backed No | 78c | 34.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 66c | 34.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 32c | 33.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 32.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe365…c0d8backed No | 67c | 30.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed Yes | 34c | 29.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 69c | 27.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 68c | 26.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 74c | 25.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 74c | 25.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4dc…338abacked No | 68c | 25.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 25.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 67c | 21.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 20.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 74c | 19.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 74c | 19.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 74c | 16.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x871d…a2e9backed No | 75c | 16.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 76c | 15.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 15.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 72c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.