Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or below on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe15bcff2f4ebd2e7ab5c4dfa4ad9069d0a504864ea15ce4b8ef1fdacfa7c926b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 1,053$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 15c | 973.98$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.24 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 34c | 552.63$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.73 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 486.79$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…31a3backed Yes | 31c | 476.34$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.55 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01de…f177backed No | 77c | 412.64$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 26c | 388.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 63c | 385.52$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.54 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 68c | 381.9$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.71 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 41c | 296.52$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.99 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 18c | 291.13$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 40c | 285.83$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.86 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked No | 28c | 268.57$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.07 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae58…f81bbacked Yes | 25c | 249.3$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 225.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd393…0744backed Yes | 5c | 223.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -60%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…92dfbacked Yes | 7c | 176.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed Yes | 61c | 173.88$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.76 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…3d4ebacked No | 49c | 172.19$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e31…4716backed No | 33c | 164.48$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.58per pick | 22cpaid | +334.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 63c | 161.24$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.06 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 157.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 157$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 11c | 152.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 13c | 150.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…7a6bbacked No | 35c | 146.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 14c | 144.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15cb…515fbacked Yes | 10c | 143.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 15c | 132.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 36c | 131.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…5944backed Yes | 11c | 131.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 10c | 131.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 28c | 126.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…fd04backed No | 79c | 124.02$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 9c | 118.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed No | 55c | 112.22$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 18c | 110.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3361…e18ebacked Yes | 53c | 109.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 36c | 109.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked Yes | 21c | 102.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9101…78ddbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 60c | 97.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed No | 29c | 95.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.54 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…20f2backed Yes | 11c | 93.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 92.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…5414backed Yes | 55c | 90.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed Yes | 14c | 87.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 13c | 83.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a4…6d83backed Yes | 63c | 81.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 70c | 79.51$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 79.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 45c | 76.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e2…be4bbacked Yes | 56c | 75.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 30c | 75.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 38c | 73.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 60c | 71.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed No | 67c | 70.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…8f47backed No | 39c | 66.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…b440backed Yes | 21c | 66.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 24c | 62.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x113b…3048backed No | 77c | 60.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde6d…cf3dbacked Yes | 19c | 60.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked No | 53c | 60.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0d…25bfbacked Yes | 61c | 55.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe747…a984backed No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 35c | 51.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf077…b207backed No | 62c | 50.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 29c | 49.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 75c | 48.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 38c | 47.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 49c | 43.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 68c | 42.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 45c | 39.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e99…9584backed Yes | 43c | 38.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed No | 31c | 37.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 36.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 78c | 34.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…9aeebacked No | 69c | 33.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Yes | 46c | 28.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…fdbbbacked No | 67c | 28.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…b6aabacked No | 75c | 26.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed No | 68c | 25.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e82…dfe5backed Yes | 52c | 22.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 53c | 19.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…aa1bbacked Yes | 60c | 19.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…afc3backed Yes | 56c | 18.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…503fbacked No | 61c | 17.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 80c | 16.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 78c | 16.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or below on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.