Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa865b860cb55ef3088d20d10a285009d175691eaf10f1ea71ffae4eb7ddfbb33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 78c | 712.56$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.91 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 530.06$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 10c | 441.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.17 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 15c | 333.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.31 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 326.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 19c | 248.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.8 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 20c | 248.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.67 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 246.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.36 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 17c | 226.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.26 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 16c | 221.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.63 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 15c | 214.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.58 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 14c | 185.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.72 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e31…4716backed Yes | 14c | 170.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.58per pick | 22cpaid | +334.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…8f47backed Yes | 26c | 150.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.52 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 16c | 147.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a4…6d83backed Yes | 41c | 147.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…92dfbacked Yes | 9c | 141.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.43 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 140.22$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.79 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 35c | 133.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.51 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…08d5backed No | 8c | 131.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 14c | 129.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.79 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 15c | 126.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.61 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 16c | 117.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc348…0b7ebacked Yes | 26c | 113.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.36 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8d…ba65backed Yes | 44c | 106.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 101.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.43 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 19c | 95.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.17 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 16c | 93.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 15c | 92.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.28 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed No | 19c | 91.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…fd4ebacked Yes | 60c | 91.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Yes | 14c | 88.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.77 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…c9b2backed Yes | 22c | 83.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 82.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.47 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 78.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…5414backed Yes | 13c | 78.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 75.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…ea10backed Yes | 36c | 73.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 69c | 72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 27c | 68.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 24c | 64.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 16c | 63.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e99…9584backed Yes | 49c | 59.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa51c…7427backed Yes | 78c | 59.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…19fabacked Yes | 73c | 57.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…669ebacked Yes | 31c | 53.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 66 | 10.6%7 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 51.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6deb…f584backed Yes | 75c | 43.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 37c | 38.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 47c | 34.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…14a8backed Yes | 66c | 34.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 78c | 29.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 73c | 20.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 70c | 19.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 78c | 18.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 17.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 80c | 16.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 15.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.