Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Matthew Dellavedova vs Taiyo Yamanaka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b9c508467cb8e3ac5effb17818d845aa612e68c99a57255ae180d323504a16e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Matthew Dellavedovaof Matthew Dellavedova, Taiyo Yamanaka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 17c | 4,464$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.23 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 13c | 1,264$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.37 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 2c | 952.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 10.7%19 W · 159 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 14c | 367.47$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.18 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 10c | 314.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a7…33c4backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 8c | 270$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…2b4dbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 8c | 270$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 17c | 260$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 394 | 51.3%202 W · 192 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 17c | 229.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f67…ba88backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 7c | 216$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af9…9931backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 7c | 216$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83d…826fbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 7c | 216$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 41 | 7.3%3 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe86e…e26ebacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 7c | 216$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 17c | 197.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…2407backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 8c | 194.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 17c | 189.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 14c | 184$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ed…efb4backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 7c | 162$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…29a8backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 9c | 162$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…e2b1backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 8c | 162$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4652…96febacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 6c | 162$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540e…263dbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 9c | 154.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 99 | 24.2%24 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 11c | 108.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Matthew Dellavedova | 80c | 44.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.