Champions League · resolved market
SSC Napoli vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bb6dc2ac4fc607f64846d73a34aa099e0471fb3379b2b1c6f31a9215fee1b40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 2,227$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.22 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 809.83$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.4 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 28c | 661$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.34 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a53…505abacked Over | 51c | 588.13$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.13 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 378.7$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.39 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.14 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3060…c709backed Over | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ef…cb71backed Under | 51c | 305.88$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x495b…8762backed Over | 66c | 302.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd35d…ea31backed Over | 64c | 292.04$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.04 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 16c | 269.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.17 | 152 | 36.8%56 W · 96 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 20c | 252.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.41 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…534cbacked Over | 29c | 225$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.8 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +80%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 37c | 194$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 343 | 42.3%145 W · 198 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 125 | 56%70 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 58c | 158$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 64c | 155.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.09 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 54c | 136.31$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…edcabacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 69c | 91.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb7…618ebacked Over | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 52c | 40.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 41c | 31.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x362b…9534backed Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…5f1dbacked Over | 40c | 25.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Over | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…bac6backed Over | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SSC Napoli vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5this page
- SSC Napoli vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SSC Napoli vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.