Premier League · resolved market
Will Slovenia win?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bc2b00935c1dbc1d2462e6befe5aed7bb2b7f1f1370d1f39dc972d1e4b3cb69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes | 20c | 42,471$8,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,323.26 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 80c | 8,530$6,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,705.93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x744c…e37fbacked No | 80c | 4,524$3,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056d…b817backed Yes | 20c | 4,476$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 319 | 44.5%142 W · 177 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed No | 79c | 2,605$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed No | 80c | 2,529$2,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.85 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…2196backed Yes | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc21…113bbacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…ef25backed No | 80c | 118.75$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c5…c8ddbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc82…76b5backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…d498backed No | 20c | 81.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…6e17backed Yes | 72c | 65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30b0…1e4bbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…fb48backed Yes | 20c | 56.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4952…4d90backed Yes | 20c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +113%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf70c…b195backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd597…beb7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…ba2ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18e…b215backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…f1ccbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…5055backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Slovenia win?this page
- Will Serbia win?No won
- Will the match be a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.