UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Cerqueira vs. Yakhyaev (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bdc31b4fa195510be52725b77c6866961fc3744816c5761b0704f955927fbc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yakhyaevof Cerqueira, Yakhyaev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Cerqueira | 7c | 24,317$1,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,781.13 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Cerqueira | 7c | 20,037$1,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402.59 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Cerqueira | 9c | 7,100$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6d…f95bbacked Cerqueira | 8c | 3,692$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3871…2a0cbacked Cerqueira | 1c | 1,600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 35cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Cerqueira | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Cerqueira | 6c | 1,043$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2928…cadabacked Cerqueira | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Cerqueira | 8c | 999.8$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Cerqueira | 9c | 830.49$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.83 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Cerqueira | 9c | 777$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Cerqueira | 7c | 699.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2d…d491backed Cerqueira | 9c | 569.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Cerqueira | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…64c3backed Cerqueira | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…3ef7backed Cerqueira | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Cerqueira | 8c | 412.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…c48dbacked Cerqueira | 7c | 369.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee44…0082backed Cerqueira | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Cerqueira | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed Cerqueira | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked Cerqueira | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4137…9d8dbacked Cerqueira | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked Cerqueira | 6c | 278.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…3608backed Cerqueira | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9945…1ef5backed Cerqueira | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…5845backed Cerqueira | 7c | 245.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Cerqueira | 5c | 228.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4212…0295backed Cerqueira | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…e20abacked Cerqueira | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f44…bc79backed Cerqueira | 6c | 169.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…be4abacked Cerqueira | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76fd…af65backed Cerqueira | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0672…19c3backed Cerqueira | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Cerqueira vs. Yakhyaev (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.