Tennis · resolved market
ITF Bucharest: Niccolo Catini vs Brendan McDonald
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c014266a80aff5a0165be8c2106a8d1db483af028abf405423f30e643d1cdb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Niccolo Catiniof Niccolo Catini, Brendan McDonald
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x540e…263dbacked Brendan McDonald | 24c | 841.54$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.41 | 99 | 24.2%24 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Niccolo Catini | 74c | 440.04$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.38 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Brendan McDonald | 41c | 367.73$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.16 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Niccolo Catini | 58c | 337.9$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.28 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Brendan McDonald | 9c | 329.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Brendan McDonald | 31c | 270.17$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Niccolo Catini | 73c | 240$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.44 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf96d…20bebacked Brendan McDonald | 22c | 233.05$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 482 | 14.1%68 W · 414 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Niccolo Catini | 58c | 206$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.52 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Brendan McDonald | 37c | 185.41$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Niccolo Catini | 59c | 175.07$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Niccolo Catini | 76c | 169.02$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 829 | 58.1%482 W · 347 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked Brendan McDonald | 41c | 93.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 139 | 65.5%91 W · 48 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Niccolo Catini | 62c | 90.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Niccolo Catini | 63c | 79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Niccolo Catini | 66c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 275 | 50.2%138 W · 137 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Niccolo Catini | 66c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 295 | 51.5%152 W · 143 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Niccolo Catini | 79c | 42.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 214 | 47.2%101 W · 113 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Niccolo Catini | 61c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Niccolo Catini | 59c | 28.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 435 | 52.9%230 W · 205 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Niccolo Catini | 74c | 21.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Niccolo Catini | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 197 | 44.7%88 W · 109 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Niccolo Catini | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 521 | 57%297 W · 224 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.