Bundesliga · resolved market
SV 07 Elversberg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c1b994cf29b7dfbc793de7a637a1c731231e24640fcb036369c546556e91434
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Over | 8c | 3,555$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.37 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +9.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 72c | 1,977$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.67 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 29c | 1,484$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.71 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 1,442$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.12 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 43c | 1,063$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.92 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 52c | 944.01$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.12 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Under | 50c | 581.08$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.06 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…206dbacked Over | 72c | 546.22$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 47c | 412$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.64 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20dc…f74cbacked Over | 39c | 247.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf885…aac5backed Over | 73c | 242.58$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 59c | 240.09$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.27 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 30c | 223.21$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.25 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 45c | 214.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Under | 56c | 210.43$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.56 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 57c | 205.03$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.16 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…efdcbacked Over | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 51c | 190.87$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.05 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 35c | 180.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 147.03$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 34c | 143.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 65c | 130.03$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 66c | 116$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 32c | 108.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 104.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 72c | 101.46$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…687abacked Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Over | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 45c | 85.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7663…c9aabacked Over | 45c | 85.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 57c | 82.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 51c | 70.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 59c | 66.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 44c | 36.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e4…d947backed Over | 68c | 28.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Under | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88d1…e058backed Under | 63c | 23.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2720backed Over | 58c | 20.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…3991backed Over | 69c | 19.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 3.5this page
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. FC Schalke 04: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5Over won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-1.5)FC Schalke 04 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.