Bundesliga · resolved market
SV 07 Elversberg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e4c77b99f17dcace8a5d4cf1bbab64086c278f078764aa941a558d88a44ace9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 75c | 2,651$1,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.54 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 25c | 1,152$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.32 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 53c | 843.45$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.42 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 59c | 741.7$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.63 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 535.8$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.15 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 47c | 427.56$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.41 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 402.86$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.79 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 76c | 390.38$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 24c | 313.52$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 64c | 310.88$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.92 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 64c | 293.69$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.73 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd35d…ea31backed Over | 76c | 259.37$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 55c | 237.31$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.93 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf885…aac5backed Over | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 42c | 173.74$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 30c | 144.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9691…c6e7backed Under | 48c | 125.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 47c | 118$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 44c | 111.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 33c | 99.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 61c | 73.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 36c | 67.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 36c | 67.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 36c | 67.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 36c | 67.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 36c | 67.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Under | 36c | 66.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 41c | 59.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 42c | 57.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 42c | 57.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 42c | 57.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 42c | 57.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 42c | 57.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 42c | 57.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Under | 43c | 56.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 24c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 33c | 53.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 31c | 50.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 66c | 43.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 52 | 76.9%40 W · 12 L | +13.0wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +72%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 79c | 41.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d95…2342backed Under | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 69c | 33.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…866bbacked Over | 79c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 48c | 21.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5this page
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. FC Schalke 04: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 3.5Under won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-1.5)FC Schalke 04 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.