Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c38e1004c9c5c34b6238cb858f68559e06cc8f5df57fe8f2d924c334612557e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes | 4c | 440.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 308.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed Yes | 30c | 221.16$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 30c | 207.22$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 75c | 191.64$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 177$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 165.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 136.9$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe329…4adbbacked No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 21c | 126.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 27c | 123.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 24c | 108.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd655…5a16backed No | 68c | 105.76$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 21c | 102.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 85.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 23c | 83.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 79c | 82.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 78.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…ad19backed No | 71c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 70.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 16c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 28c | 65.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c99…a880backed Yes | 30c | 61.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 79c | 61.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 33c | 52.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 35c | 48.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…b944backed Yes | 28c | 46.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 26c | 46.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 44.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 72c | 40.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 71c | 39.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 23.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e5…8d7dbacked No | 75c | 16.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…3633backed No | 78c | 13.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.