TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,084
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,820

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,084 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8abd…c2a6backed No1c3,933$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8de…a2b8backed No1c2,990$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.82378.1%3 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-76.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…4e57backed Yes70c526.93$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.464551.1%23 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No16c271.12$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No53c258.18$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.788,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No11c240.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4763656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No15c234.01$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.181,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No43c229.57$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5128737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1348…7037backed Yes74c200.43$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5417665.9%116 W · 60 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes40c184.03$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.9617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes47c182.85$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.539535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No9c177.53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6956424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes43c177.33$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.691,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No14c177.25$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.17,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4ec1…07a5backed No11c171.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9224768.4%169 W · 78 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No36c169.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.711731.6%37 W · 80 L-19.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xb185…48c1backed No37c168.33$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9119720.8%41 W · 156 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda18…4282backed Yes54c161.64$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.752846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed Yes65c155.35$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8727540%110 W · 165 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No73c120.7$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.5357038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8cf0…ab54backed No38c119.97$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5916320.2%33 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes47c117.24$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.717,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf023…6ac7backed No51c111.88$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.06666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No49c111.7$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7316046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes57c104.16$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.499949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0456131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2028839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes49c99.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.991,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed No47c99.98$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9944448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No37c91.71$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes27c90$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.73,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes31c76.69$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2645619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes64c71.35$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.635,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82cf…b944backed Yes54c70.56$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.42035%7 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked No47c68.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4518327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x440c…8dccbacked Yes48c67$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.849635.4%34 W · 62 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x017c…00c3backed Yes47c66$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9825042.4%106 W · 144 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes57c64.71$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8151321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No45c61.47$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.669,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4671…b5eebacked No73c61.07$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.484465.9%29 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x402a…bf33backed No47c59.85$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.935046%23 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85e8…9301backed Yes54c59.82$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3611362.8%71 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed Yes42c59.04$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0626566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No29c58.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.964,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab14…e786backed Yes40c58.57$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1211243.8%49 W · 63 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes71c58.27$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7860236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3ce…2ea5backed Yes52c55.31$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.762548%12 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x47f7…0312backed No68c52.93$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9914663%92 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No58c51.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3083360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4125…868cbacked No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238240.2%33 W · 49 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1335…336fbacked No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No56c44.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.99,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked No56c44.34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8320942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes53c43.83$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.711,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No69c43.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0170770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6969…c0c1backed Yes70c41.57$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.473542.9%15 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185438.9%21 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa55a…0c43backed No48c39.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.126827.9%19 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x422a…c395backed Yes59c39.72$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.299349.5%46 W · 47 L-7.2wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-22%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes62c38.79$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7413042.3%55 W · 75 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes63c38.03$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9417643.2%76 W · 100 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes35c37.88$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7265043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…52e8backed No45c37.59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.022138.1%8 W · 13 L-4.2wins-0.20per pick58cpaid-32.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes67c37.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1657659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d9…03d2backed Yes63c35.25$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.084158.5%24 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90c4…2fa9backed Yes43c34.51$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.672548%12 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed No51c32.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4930046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes44c32.1$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9740242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90b7…148cbacked Yes49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.39331.2%29 W · 64 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc1…ea87backed No36c29.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.552846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No71c29.13$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6854966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cc7…54abbacked No60c28.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3618650.5%94 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes53c28.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4423738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No42c27.28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.511,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fc…ac1ebacked Yes47c26.26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.922853.6%15 W · 13 L+4.8wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+44.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x65ac…882bbacked Yes47c25.82$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.73922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-49.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes49c24.16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3223035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7cf…7825backed No50c23.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7928954.3%157 W · 132 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x989a…b73fbacked Yes61c22.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9418164.1%116 W · 65 L+29.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+37%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x2117…9bedbacked Yes57c22.48$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.576946.4%32 W · 37 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f83…9847backed Yes50c22.4$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.25438.9%21 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes53c21.58$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.147744.2%34 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8348…5161backed Yes59c21.01$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…ae14backed Yes73c19.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.299943.4%43 W · 56 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No70c18.04$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6381756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Yes78c15.91$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.513554.8%74 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.