MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c484d1cdcbf0c016fc092240bdfb7487f082c6cb3e112b72b6b624fb31804a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 5,767$2,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,171.98 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 4,105$2,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,289.53 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 3,886$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,176.2 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 2,459$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,378.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 1,904$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.24 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 1,610$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.54 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 1,553$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.15 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…e9dcbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 1,330$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.26 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 793.99$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.73 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 510$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.66 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.99 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 420$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 360$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 341.07$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 205 | 51.7%106 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 303.16$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.77 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 285.71$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 225$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 199.83$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.91 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 199$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.44 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 171$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 142.79$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 125.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 109.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 102.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 65.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Los Angeles Angels | 19c | 60.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 59.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 59.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 58.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…82b5backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 193 | 52.8%102 W · 91 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 51.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…97c4backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 31.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.