Tennis · resolved market
Hangzhou Open: Andrey Rublev vs Valentin Royer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c53528980f8b0270294058d5b6061a36e500bba7f1644374cea9de6df507527
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Royerof Rublev, Royer
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Rublev | 44c | 4,286$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900.32 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Royer | 50c | 2,406$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,205.32 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Royer | 52c | 1,875$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.35 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Royer | 45c | 1,809$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.3 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Royer | 66c | 1,437$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.71 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Royer | 22c | 999.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.99 | 365 | 40.8%149 W · 216 L | -13.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Rublev | 61c | 845.8$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.85 | 206 | 53.4%110 W · 96 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Rublev | 54c | 800$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b9…6f49backed Rublev | 52c | 795.01$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…082abacked Rublev | 78c | 542.92$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.48 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…f48dbacked Rublev | 47c | 432.89$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.46 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Rublev | 78c | 424.4$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.03 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Royer | 22c | 405.85$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.56 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…335abacked Rublev | 50c | 401.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Royer | 64c | 314$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.38 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Rublev | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Royer | 63c | 158.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Rublev | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Rublev | 69c | 119.52$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Rublev | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Rublev | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Rublev | 44c | 103.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf41…5562backed Rublev | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…3fbdbacked Rublev | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Royer | 19c | 61.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Rublev | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Rublev | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…2f0dbacked Rublev | 79c | 17.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.