Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana reach $140 December 15-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c5715f51e0f7521d4341cd2a8213f1b6973a97c5e583d3939012e3566238b2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55be…dca3backed Yes | 12c | 8,956$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.52 | 291 | 26.5%77 W · 214 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 7,845$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 0c | 3,780$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 76c | 2,422$1,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.53 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,132$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1258…0c15backed Yes | 5c | 1,118$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 10c | 1,079$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.38 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8a…19f3backed Yes | 4c | 1,054$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 867.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 830.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 568.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 28c | 499.66$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.72 | 81 | 16%13 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…167dbacked Yes | 7c | 437.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 6c | 409.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 8c | 400$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 78 | 1.3%1 W · 77 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 7c | 312.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb165…c97ebacked No | 78c | 307.04$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5122…9688backed No | 77c | 299.49$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…0e2dbacked No | 80c | 289.99$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 29c | 282.61$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e45…3662backed No | 76c | 264.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 32 | 84.4%27 W · 5 L | +7.9wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa1da…b838backed Yes | 10c | 251.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 65c | 250$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13f…9544backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x846f…750ebacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba10…0592backed Yes | 12c | 174.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2f…1838backed No | 76c | 171.23$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 156$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…f9dfbacked Yes | 18c | 152.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240c…03e0backed No | 74c | 143.5$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb86…bf67backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08d0…1f1fbacked No | 65c | 125$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…82c2backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6697…0721backed Yes | 15c | 84.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b7…04d2backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5491…e7a1backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4387…79f2backed No | 75c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8df1…d8a5backed No | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd35e…248fbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6b…7892backed No | 76c | 26.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 66c | 23.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe5…ea69backed No | 79c | 19.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd2…7414backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana reach $140 December 15-21?this page
- Will Solana dip to $100 December 15-21?No won
- Will Solana dip to $110 December 15-21?No won
- Will Solana dip to $120 December 15-21?Yes won
- Will Solana dip to $80 December 15-21?No won
- Will Solana dip to $90 December 15-21?No won
- Will Solana reach $150 December 15-21?No won
- Will Solana reach $160 December 15-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.