Lol · resolved market
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c5e4a39d491f891df99490ccb3e92efd8d47ce390abaa6abc5c9492ecd23ead
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Forsakenof Barcząca Esports, Forsaken
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfaf…9875backed Barcząca Esports | 10c | 2,665$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…254fbacked Barcząca Esports | 46c | 1,845$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.77 | 533 | 55%293 W · 240 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…f4e0backed Forsaken | 47c | 1,263$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.16 | 642 | 47.4%304 W · 338 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Forsaken | 46c | 505.17$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.15 | 1,671 | 57.9%968 W · 703 L | +70.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbafa…02e0backed Forsaken | 42c | 454.35$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.95 | 801 | 50.7%406 W · 395 L | +48.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…fd67backed Forsaken | 72c | 346$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.35 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca3…c679backed Barcząca Esports | 20c | 299.43$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed Barcząca Esports | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 443 | 50.8%225 W · 218 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c67…9896backed Barcząca Esports | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 506 | 46%233 W · 273 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed Barcząca Esports | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 476 | 30.7%146 W · 330 L | -13.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Forsaken | 63c | 191$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 744 | 62.2%463 W · 281 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb3…4d75backed Barcząca Esports | 46c | 169.43$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 608 | 55.8%339 W · 269 L | -14.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe703…37ddbacked Forsaken | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Forsaken | 58c | 123$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 390 | 55.4%216 W · 174 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Forsaken | 58c | 100.08$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 204 | 39.2%80 W · 124 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd05c…ea2cbacked Barcząca Esports | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Forsaken | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 389 | 45.2%176 W · 213 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Forsaken | 55c | 96.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 322 | 53.1%171 W · 151 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Barcząca Esports | 53c | 94.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 1,061 | 54.7%580 W · 481 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd933…6a68backed Barcząca Esports | 30c | 74.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Forsaken | 55c | 71.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 134 | 54.5%73 W · 61 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…e21dbacked Barcząca Esports | 79c | 62.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 997 | 47.1%470 W · 527 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Forsaken | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc4…e2b9backed Forsaken | 39c | 45.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52b…baf2backed Forsaken | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c78…aad1backed Barcząca Esports | 57c | 35.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,251 | 54.1%677 W · 574 L | -29.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Barcząca Esports | 37c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +24.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Forsaken | 36c | 32.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 3,131 | 33.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L | -150.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Forsaken | 43c | 30.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 1,826 | 39.9%728 W · 1,098 L | -61.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Forsaken | 64c | 23.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 1,576 | 48.4%763 W · 813 L | +17.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Barcząca Esports vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- LoL: Barcząca Esports vs Forsaken (BO5) - Rift Legends PlayoffsForsaken won
- LoL: Barcząca Esports vs Forsaken - Game 2 WinnerForsaken won
- LoL: Barcząca Esports vs Forsaken - Game 3 WinnerBarcząca Esports won
- LoL: Barcząca Esports vs Forsaken - Game 4 WinnerBarcząca Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.