Mls · resolved market
Portland Timbers vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c63583a519f7cb8107ca95d3182205cbf1237346211de441086f02f39e6bc6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Over | 80c | 2,166$1,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Under | 43c | 936.61$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 20c | 874.31$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.12 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 30c | 328.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.21 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 20c | 274.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ef…39b6backed Over | 73c | 274.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 62c | 253.27$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.21 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 54c | 238.44$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.56 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 20c | 235.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 65c | 226.4$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.26 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 79c | 217.3$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.67 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 30c | 168.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Under | 19c | 119.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 65c | 94.29$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 41c | 87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37fa…1136backed Over | 79c | 56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 53c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…0d47backed Over | 52c | 47.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 48c | 47.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 29c | 45.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 126 | 67.5%85 W · 41 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 72c | 39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Over | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portland Timbers vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 4.5this page
- Portland Timbers vs. Columbus Crew: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Portland Timbers vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 2.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)Columbus Crew won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)Columbus Crew won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.