Serie A · resolved market
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c6a97acbbdf7c4c177430cc259dc534d3ed7b42441c5b75a47931269d621c16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d2…d196backed Over | 71c | 6,125$4,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,776.13 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 2,082$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.73 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 1c | 999.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +206%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 29c | 441.42$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.09 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 29c | 441.42$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.09 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 29c | 436.7$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.67 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 29c | 433.44$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.7 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 29c | 433.44$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.7 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 29c | 433.44$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.7 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 29c | 431.7$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.19 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 75c | 395.95$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.51 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 29c | 330.14$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.74 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 29c | 329.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.73 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 22c | 255.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Under | 36c | 238.7$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 30c | 216.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.58 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 29c | 173.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…f53abacked Over | 79c | 126.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 21c | 123.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 26c | 108.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 419 | 54.7%229 W · 190 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 64c | 102.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…7a39backed Over | 79c | 99.35$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 72c | 98.32$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 68c | 98.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 267 | 47.2%126 W · 141 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 29c | 82.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf270…6015backed Over | 62c | 72.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 28c | 63.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 418 | 54.8%229 W · 189 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 62c | 58.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 345 | 53.9%186 W · 159 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…8320backed Over | 72c | 51.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 75c | 49.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Under | 29c | 49.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 116 | 19%22 W · 94 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 73c | 40.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -5.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 79c | 35.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7482…a8f7backed Over | 69c | 34.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f6…4288backed Over | 71c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 70cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 70c | 14.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-1.5)US Sassuolo Calcio won
- Spread: US Sassuolo Calcio (-1.5)Cagliari Calcio won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5Over won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5Under won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.