Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c8bc2b0057a2a12a844da5f4b21f6237cde3395239f529c3053e2ac58240596
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,660$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.07 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 20c | 415.29$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.11 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 8c | 402.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 74c | 353.85$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.4 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 28c | 313.13$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.39 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 11c | 241.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 46c | 218$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 192.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 9c | 190.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 14c | 146.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 78c | 144.46$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 14c | 101.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 76c | 90.79$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 70c | 88.67$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 72c | 70.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…c908backed Yes | 16c | 69.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa5…7621backed No | 24c | 58.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 48.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed Yes | 23c | 45.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 77c | 38.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 68c | 31.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 20.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 27?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 27?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 27?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 27?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 27?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.