Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cba2e1d466b80b58e9a54076306d74f3287e30df5ee3570cc35ffa3686d2b93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff78…df44backed Yes | 77c | 478.67$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.63 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +16.2wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3be4…009abacked No | 34c | 137.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 31c | 119.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 15c | 115.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 47c | 84.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 82.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 66c | 72.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 52c | 67.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…22a8backed Yes | 74c | 56.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 71c | 48.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 30c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd46…c41abacked Yes | 74c | 25.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…3385backed Yes | 66c | 22.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 56c | 22.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b43…1894backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…ef44backed No | 55c | 18.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e07…2e28backed Yes | 74c | 14.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on January 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.