Champions League · resolved market
Will Atlético Madrid beat PSG?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cdc10953bac8d1e2318843a7775c4f37cb02dcee20ea87789e751e731d1fe24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3e5…2a3ebacked No | 78c | 6,563$5,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,467.97 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 22c | 6,433$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.55 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked No | 73c | 5,195$3,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,402.16 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0144…86f5backed Yes | 27c | 5,190$1,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca3…5aa6backed No | 78c | 2,571$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 22c | 1,586$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.48 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…de5abacked Yes | 11c | 910.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 16c | 833.1$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.27 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe324…9189backed Yes | 25c | 800.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Yes | 25c | 777$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.25 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…aac8backed No | 76c | 659.85$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.85 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked No | 75c | 656$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 76c | 608.14$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.95 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd4…db03backed Yes | 4c | 579.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…0be6backed Yes | 28c | 428.38$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.99 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd5…a3ccbacked Yes | 25c | 397.85$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.41 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 80c | 376.72$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.12 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed No | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…74d6backed Yes | 25c | 210.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89e…6a30backed Yes | 25c | 118.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 75c | 110.96$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…2578backed No | 76c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed No | 76c | 78.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 75c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29da…02c1backed Yes | 26c | 40.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…04b1backed Yes | 25c | 40.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…f9b4backed No | 77c | 29.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 75c | 29.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 383 | 56.7%217 W · 166 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…a823backed No | 75c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atlético Madrid beat PSG?this page
- Will PSG beat Atlético Madrid?Yes won
- Will PSG vs. Atlético Madrid end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.