Mls · resolved market
Los Angeles FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ce18444ea68552b122ea18d7b8b3510adced55fc4c364c75bb626d89d701c8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,024 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Over | 52c | 533$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.29 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 22c | 451$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.22 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 56c | 314.92$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.05 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 53c | 291.91$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.64 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Under | 34c | 230$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.8 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 38c | 157.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.89 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 68c | 146.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Under | 48c | 131.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.63 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +45%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 16c | 101.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Over | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 75c | 99.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Over | 25c | 99.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 34c | 96.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 66c | 92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 89.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 43c | 71.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 30c | 66.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Over | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Over | 32c | 42.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 28c | 39.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 34c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Over | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 66c | 17.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5this page
- Los Angeles FC vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Los Angeles FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 1.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.