Mls · resolved market
Los Angeles FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98f2d32fdde9f7edc246fb60053730f4b4cd20a6092d80028351573b0dec486a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,180 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fd9…1ef0backed Under | 57c | 38,359$21,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,505.47 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 43c | 11,454$4,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,925.08 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 43c | 3,800$1,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,634 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…c1f1backed Over | 43c | 3,500$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 3,421$1,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.46 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 43c | 2,084$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.69 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 43c | 2,064$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.52 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 45c | 1,829$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.05 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…77f2backed Over | 43c | 1,769$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 43c | 1,744$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.92 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…c93fbacked Over | 43c | 1,500$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Over | 67c | 733$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.52 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 35c | 587.96$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.25 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 44c | 570.22$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.87 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc39…1564backed Over | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 9c | 463.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 43c | 452.56$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.6 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -44%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Over | 35c | 300$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 17c | 235.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 43c | 225$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 46c | 218.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 43c | 217$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.31 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 55c | 214.23$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.09 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 61c | 213.11$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.11 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Over | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 14c | 136.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Over | 43c | 125$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 43c | 115$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 59c | 108.87$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Over | 41c | 99.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Over | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 55c | 83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 44c | 60.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 43c | 56.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…ceb2backed Over | 43c | 50.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…798cbacked Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5768…a918backed Over | 23c | 44.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…856cbacked Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 44c | 25.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 44c | 24.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Over | 44c | 23.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 57c | 18.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5this page
- Los Angeles FC vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Los Angeles FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 1.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.