Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ceed1e0b067b85d38123ef99cbd5729e22325d0cc8775a7f8cc7c9b883824b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 43c | 381.55$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.62 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 57c | 317.52$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.9 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 58c | 274.77$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.54 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 170.97$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.31 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 49c | 151.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.77 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 43c | 147.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.93 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 141.95$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 134.88$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 54c | 118.24$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 43c | 112$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 44c | 104.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f5…79c7backed Yes | 42c | 94.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 55c | 94.27$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 80.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 76.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed No | 69c | 72.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 69.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…99c9backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 58c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 39.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 37.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 35c | 35.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 54c | 33.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 67c | 32.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 58c | 27.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3465…e882backed Yes | 44c | 25.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2faa…26c2backed Yes | 47c | 23.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 66c | 21.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 60c | 21.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 20.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…af02backed Yes | 76c | 14.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 76c | 13.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C or higher on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.