Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cfadcda7a561c3b836f991c29b26973e6d8acc3ef07b3f680b881a93f3c0f70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 22c | 255.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.71 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 244.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 70c | 214.66$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 11c | 204.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.73 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 34c | 181.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 9c | 169.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 156.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 143.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 21c | 140.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 40c | 130$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 77c | 89.04$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 26c | 74.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 64.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed Yes | 77c | 63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 41c | 61.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 18c | 57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 51c | 55.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 52c | 47.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 38.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 34.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 45c | 34.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 80c | 31.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 48c | 31.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…c853backed No | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 65c | 27.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 47c | 27.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…6334backed No | 69c | 26.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 48c | 26.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 24.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes | 54c | 22.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 78c | 19.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa1…f1e6backed Yes | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C or higher on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.