Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d0622a694f928f3413c90f24453b73b2978ba33f4d508ca5fed1fccaaa3fb22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 1,059$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…8723backed Yes | 47c | 605.95$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.55 | 45 | 86.7%39 W · 6 L | +16.1wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 6c | 590.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 7c | 283.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.37 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 20c | 244.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 22c | 238.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 57c | 189.69$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.25 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 37c | 176.43$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.27 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 162.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 114.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 102.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x996a…261fbacked No | 11c | 97.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed No | 79c | 69.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…e98cbacked Yes | 18c | 66.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 54c | 62.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 44c | 23.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 79c | 20.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…80c0backed Yes | 73c | 14.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…89babacked Yes | 70c | 14.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 74c | 14.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.