Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d3181b698bf7e95bd8b3c86fa83bca21aaa209275b1386704ef0901440fc2da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 2c | 1,240$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 2c | 1,115$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 2c | 931.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 2c | 736.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 420.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 168.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 12c | 160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…f3a3backed No | 76c | 130.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 63c | 117.05$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 10c | 115.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 67c | 109.38$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 101.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 69c | 97.7$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 73.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd311…a2bbbacked Yes | 34c | 70.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 64.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 60.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x66da…6d6fbacked Yes | 26c | 58.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 50.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44fa…cc91backed Yes | 31c | 48.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 24c | 48.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 23c | 47.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 32c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…e3babacked Yes | 28c | 43.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 43.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 38.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 76c | 32.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 35c | 30.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 66c | 30.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 21.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 67c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 66c | 17.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3504…8620backed No | 66c | 16.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or higher on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.