Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8eec54fb08bf8cea98867c7e07574bac072a1e20f226f62c40d2bc61f3ec480f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 58c | 564.3$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.94 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 3c | 531.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 16c | 458.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 79c | 440.78$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.05 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 399.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 26c | 214.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 173.2$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 165.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 27c | 165.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 136.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 21c | 103.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…dbb3backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed No | 74c | 83.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 35c | 81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 17c | 79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 35c | 72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 23c | 69.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f13…edcfbacked Yes | 50c | 67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 24c | 62.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 27c | 53.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…7e67backed Yes | 30c | 52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 60cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…bff5backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 62c | 45.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 78c | 45.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 36c | 44.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb954…c00dbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc048…302ebacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 70c | 38.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 75c | 35.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 44c | 33.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked No | 62c | 32.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 46c | 26.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 42c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5db…717dbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe418…28b5backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or higher on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.