Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a20fb2394d7a28d0a34b8e8d6005890d12b1da062052e13f85192dab7bec7d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0f9…8739backed No | 15c | 2,657$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 2c | 2,124$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 1c | 2,100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 2c | 1,901$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed No | 1c | 1,843$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…f823backed No | 1c | 1,133$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 7c | 985.14$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…d5c6backed No | 2c | 586.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 2c | 443.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 419.9$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.36 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 49c | 289.67$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.88 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 10c | 234.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 163.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 163.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.72 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 162.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 72c | 154.53$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 120.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 65c | 115.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 39c | 111.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 50c | 111$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 109.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 57c | 97.08$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 31c | 92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 53c | 89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 45c | 81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd311…a2bbbacked Yes | 32c | 72.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 59c | 67.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 62.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 45c | 62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 27c | 59.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…101dbacked Yes | 55c | 53.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 49c | 50.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…d2c8backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…1d86backed No | 76c | 49.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 33c | 45.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 43.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 52c | 40.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ca…f531backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 39.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…7513backed Yes | 30c | 39.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 64c | 36.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78f…cf9bbacked No | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 58c | 34.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 34.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1c82backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ad…e485backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 72c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 74c | 26.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…1840backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…ccb3backed No | 68c | 24.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 64c | 23.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 65c | 22.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 53c | 22.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 60c | 21.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 54c | 18.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 64c | 17.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6acf…27a6backed Yes | 70c | 15.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or higher on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.