College Football · resolved market
Spread: Texas State (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d5679e925fdace8aa2abced1991dfb8f1dac1ed9c025362f2b6940c97387d87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Louisianaof Texas State, Louisiana
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $506,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $506,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $506,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed88…f3c4backed Texas State | 51c | 463,913$236,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236,273.91 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Louisiana | 49c | 276,852$135,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141,140.03 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Louisiana | 49c | 43,972$21,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,425.86 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Louisiana | 50c | 41,305$20,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,652.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Louisiana | 49c | 30,000$14,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,300 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Louisiana | 49c | 24,280$11,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,334.16 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Louisiana | 49c | 18,735$9,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,554.95 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Louisiana | 49c | 12,500$6,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,375 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Louisiana | 49c | 11,688$5,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,960.76 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Louisiana | 49c | 10,566$5,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,343.28 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Louisiana | 49c | 10,020$4,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,110.2 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Louisiana | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Louisiana | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Louisiana | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4d…6055backed Louisiana | 49c | 1,250$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Louisiana | 50c | 901.8$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.9 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Louisiana | 49c | 714$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.14 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Louisiana | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Louisiana | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Louisiana | 49c | 316$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.16 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Louisiana | 49c | 221.82$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.21 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Texas State | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 148 | 36.5%54 W · 94 L | -11.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Louisiana | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked Louisiana | 49c | 86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Louisiana | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Louisiana | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Texas State | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b3…2fb4backed Texas State | 49c | 21.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas State (-3.5)this page
- O/U 64.5Over won
- Texas State vs. LouisianaLouisiana won
- Texas State vs. Louisiana: O/U 63.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.