Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d575281e1bee23aaef69948544242224270f189d70d6b4b5b5738516bf08030
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,457 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e17…5aacbacked Yes | 2c | 79,864$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 69c | 576.26$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.83 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 68c | 576.07$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.41 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 16c | 561.12$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes | 7c | 499.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 28c | 412.71$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.85 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 403.44$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 29c | 350$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.87 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e3…51a3backed Yes | 71c | 349.46$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 75c | 331.85$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.85 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…d12abacked Yes | 71c | 278.91$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 29c | 263.6$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.93 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 77c | 258.49$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 258.05$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 32c | 251.62$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 30c | 236$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.2 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 218.37$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 215.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 213.92$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 29c | 206.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.63 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 78c | 205.57$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 34c | 198.05$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 13c | 164.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcb…e0f9backed Yes | 38c | 160$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 67c | 157.35$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 64c | 149.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 149.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…41f4backed No | 65c | 137.98$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 24c | 135.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 14c | 135$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 23c | 135$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 26c | 134.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 20c | 126.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 30c | 125.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 77c | 123.73$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 78c | 120.69$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 29c | 112.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 55c | 110.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x828c…a8a2backed No | 30c | 106.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 74c | 100.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 73c | 98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de6…f3e4backed No | 69c | 94.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadbe…8d7cbacked Yes | 22c | 91.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 17c | 86.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 35c | 86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 13c | 84.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 30c | 81.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed Yes | 22c | 75.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…d075backed No | 67c | 74.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe4…3e65backed No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…6d40backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe942…2c3ebacked Yes | 25c | 65.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 71c | 63.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…d125backed No | 64c | 60.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 67c | 59.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 24c | 59.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed Yes | 21c | 58.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 67c | 58.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 31c | 56.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 34c | 50.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…b6bcbacked Yes | 32c | 49.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae3c…ee83backed Yes | 36c | 44.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86ea…8e24backed Yes | 24c | 43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 44c | 41.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be2…cba5backed No | 80c | 40.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 74cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 69c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 64c | 38.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 47c | 36.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4430…a0a8backed Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 28c | 35.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…4861backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 75c | 34.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 35c | 34.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…2805backed Yes | 37c | 32.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 27.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 71c | 27.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 78c | 25.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed1…c6fbbacked No | 57c | 25.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 20.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…3c9cbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…ab77backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 19.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a05…cb86backed No | 77c | 19.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 72cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d04…b707backed No | 73c | 18.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.